Countdown to war: How a diplomatic crisis in the Balkans led to a Europe-wide conflagration

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This article is from Military History Matters issue 141


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FROM 28 JUNE 1914 TO 4 AUGUST 1914

28 June – Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand

Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne, having met his good friend Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany just weeks previously to discuss the tense situation in the Balkans, is assassinated in Sarajevo along with his wife, Sophie. The killer is a 19-year-old Bosnian Serb, Gavrilo Princip, a member of a violent Serbian nationalist group. Princip tries to kill himself immediately after the assassination but is restrained by bystanders and later arrested. The event inflames the very regional tensions that had so concerned the murdered Archduke. Austria-Hungary resolves to use the royal murder as an excuse to crush its Serbian rival.

1 July – Royal Naval Air Service established in Britain

5 July – Germany issues ‘blank cheque’ to Austria-Hungary

In response to the assassination, Austrian Emperor Franz Josef writes to the Kaiser requesting his support in tackling Serbia. Austria-Hungary is ill-prepared for war, and an attack could drag Russia, Serbia’s ally, into the conflict. On 6 July, Germany responds, with Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg informing the Austrian leadership that it had Germany’s full support. This ‘blank cheque’ offer is driven partly by Germany’s own fear of ‘encirclement’ in Europe, and by its determination to see its only close ally, Austria-Hungary, remain a Great Power.

14 July – Irish Home Rule Bill stalls in British parliament

23 July – Austria-Hungary issues ultimatum to Serbia

With the guarantee of German backing, Austria-Hungary delivers an ultimatum to Serbia, demanding it take steps to destroy terrorist organisations within its borders, suppress anti-Austrian propaganda, and allow an Austrian-led investigation into the assassination of 28 June. Serbia faced military action if it declined this offer. The following day, recognising the growing severity of the crisis, the British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey tries to organise a peace conference to prevent further escalation. France accepts his proposals, but Germany refuses.

26 July – Russia begins partial mobilisation

In response to appeals from Serbia, Russia gears up for war. But the beleaguered Tzar, Nicholas II – cousin of the German Kaiser – is already beset by a number of domestic issues, primarily the widespread anti-government sentiment among industrial workers. Fed up with low wages and dangerous conditions, workers have been striking for several months, and in early July 1914 the massive St Petersburg General Strike paralyses the city’s industry. The outbreak of war quells the strikes, as populist sentiment sweeps the country. 

28 July – Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia

Austria-Hungary rejects the Serbian reply to its terms as insufficient and, in a telegram (pictured below), declares war, despite the likelihood that this will drag Russia and Germany into the conflict. The long brewing Balkan Crisis is spreading like wildfire across Europe. On 29 July, the following day, Germany requests British neutrality, but this demand is refused.

31 July – Russia moves to full mobilisation

Germany demands that Russia demobilises its troops. Russia sees its mobilisation as a precautionary measure, but Germany sees it as a sign of aggression. Determined to act quickly, Germany declares war on Russia. Nicholas II and his wife Alexandra – of German birth herself – appear on the balcony of the Winter Palace to the acclaim of thousands of citizens. Mandatory conscription is introduced in Russia but some 95% of conscripts report for duty voluntarily. Despite the fervour for war, Russia remains extremely ill-prepared for conflict, and troops leave for the front without crucial equipment, such as weapons, ammunition, and boots.

1 August – Germany declares war on Russia and France

Germany’s Schlieffen Plan outlines a proposal for a swift defeat of France in order to concentrate its forces on Russia, thereby avoiding a ‘two-front’ conflict with its great European rivals. But Russia’s swift mobilisation alarms Germany. On 1 August, Germany declares war on Russia, then on France two days later. Britain mobilises the Royal Navy, its ‘sword and shield’. Although unwilling to get involved in what is still perceived to be a distant crisis, the threat of a German-dominated Europe alarms the British government. On 2 August, the cabinet agrees to uphold its commitment to support Belgium if its territory were violated.

2 August – Germany secures pact with Ottoman Empire

4 August – German troops enter Belgium, Britain declares war

The Schlieffen Plan requires Germany to pass through Belgium, a direct violation of its territory, in order to swiftly defeat France. Germany presses Belgium into allowing its troops to pass, but the request is denied. Germany then invades. In response, Britain issues an ultimatum at 2pm on 4 August, demanding that Germany withdraw its troops from Belgium. At 11pm that night, the deadline passes without reply, and Britain declares war on Germany. Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey reportedly remarks: ‘The lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.’

4 August – The United States declares neutrality

Infographics: Calum Henderson

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